Harfang2 a écrit : ↑ven. mai 30, 2025 12:12 pm
Quelqu'un a une idée a peu cohérente de la manière dont se conflit pourrait se terminer? Je ne vois pas d'issue a part une interminable guerre à la Iran-Irak en ce qui me concerne.
JP Morgan (papier de Lisa Sawyer qui a conseillé Obama puis Biden) n'envisage même pas que l'Ukraine récupère des territoires et prévoit 4 scénarios.
Best case – “South Korea” (15 % de chances)
President Zelenskyy will get neither NATO membership nor the full restoration of Ukraine’s territory. However, if he can secure an in-country European tripwire force backstopped by
an American security promise on assistance and intelligence support, then the 80 percent
of Ukraine still under Kyiv’s control will be set on a much more stable, prosperous, and
democratic trajectory. The West’s decision to leverage the approximately $300 billion it has
frozen in Russian sovereign assets would also get reconstruction in Ukraine off to a good
start.
Still OK – “Israel” (20 %)
Strong, enduring military and economic support without a significant foreign troop presence would likely still provide Ukraine the space to turn itself into a fortress, pursue
military modernization, and eventually establish its own deterrent. But war would always be
on its doorstep. Putin would still need to see sufficient economic benefits (including
sanctions relief) and a stronger relationship with the U.S.
Not great – “Georgia” (50%)
In the absence of both foreign troops and strong military support, Ukraine will experience ongoing instability, stunted growth and recovery, waning foreign support over time, and the
effective derailment of its Western integration (i.e., EU and NATO membership), with gradual drift back into Russia’s orbit.
Worst case – “Belarus” (15%)
If the United States abandons Ukraine—or is perceived as switching sides—and Europe
fails to step up, Russia will hold firm to its maximalist demands and seek Ukraine’s total capitulation, turning the country into a vassal state of Moscow. In this scenario, Russia will have effectively won the war, divided the West, and irrevocably upended the post-World War II world order.
D'un autre côté on les a vues en 2008 les prévisions et les évaluations de Jean-Pierre Morgan.
